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Greek Euro Exit By Numbers: What Economists Expect

Wall Street Journal - May 21, 2012

As the prospect of Greece leaving the euro becomes more real by the day, economists are trying to figure out what would happen next, to the economy and to the markets.

Nothing is certain here; Greece may or may not leave, and there's a huge range of potential policy responses. So, making allowances for some guesswork, here's a rundown of some of their views.

DEUTSCHE BANK: Amid all the concern about Greece leaving the euro altogether, Deutsche Bank suggests another path: introducing a parallel currency, which it nicknames the "Geuro," to run alongside the remaining common currency. Leaving the euro altogether would cause economic, political and social chaos, the bank says, whereas this would give the authorities "the power to stabilize the exchange rate of the Geuro...so as to keep the door open to a future return."

JP MORGAN: There's now a 50% chance of Greece leaving, up from 20% before the country's politicians failed to produce a coalition government. Regional unemployment could be higher than "anything seen in the past half-century." In terms of policy responses "the euro-system's direct exposure appears manageable in the context of large revaluation gains but if losses exceed the readily available buffer, euro-zone sovereigns may be called upon to make immediate capital injections."

Read Full Article from Wall Street Journal

- Posted: 2012-05-21 11:02:15


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